Rome, September 10, 2024. The global wine market will reach $353.4 billion in 2024, with total consumption of 25.3 billion liters. Over the past five years, the industry has grown by an average of 5% annually, with France, Italy, and the United States accounting for about 60% of the global market. Italy has lost its production leadership to France, but Italian wine exports will exceed €8 billion over the next two years, indicating lower production but a focus on quality.
These are among the conclusions of the report “Italy in the Global Wine Market. Evolution and Perspectives” curated by Valerio Mancini, Director of the Rome Business School’s Research Center.
Demand is shifting towards excellence and natural products, creating new opportunities for Italian wine in emerging markets like China, India, and Poland. The domestic market is also changing: glass-of-wine consumption at meals is declining, but wine is becoming more appreciated among young people, with more consumers seeking information on the supply chain and rediscovering ancient vineyards, in addition to paying greater attention to sustainable packaging and customer service, says the author.
In 2023, the global vineyard area decreased by 0.5% compared to 2022, reaching 7.2 million hectares. Global wine production dropped to 237 million hectoliters, the lowest level since 1961, down 10% from 2022, partially due to extreme weather conditions and fungal diseases.
According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV, 2023), Italy lost its production leadership to France, with 38 million hectoliters compared to France’s 48 million, marking a 23% drop for Italy and a 9% increase for France. European production decreased to 144 million hectoliters (-9/10%) compared to 93 million hectoliters from the rest of the world. In 2023, France accounted for 18% of global production, Italy for 15%, and Spain for 11%, with the three countries together covering less than 50% of global production.
In Italy, over the past year, wine production decreased by 13% compared to the record levels of 2022, falling below the historical average of the previous decade. According to ISTAT (2023), the hardest-hit regions were Abruzzo (-41%), Campania (-42%), and Marche (-40%). In the North, Piedmont saw a 20% decline, while Veneto, Italy’s leading wine region, produced 10.6 million hectoliters, 4% above the ten-year average but 10% below 2022 levels. Despite these negative data, Coldiretti highlights that the lower production reflects a focus on quality, with 70% of Italian bottles classified as DOCG, DOC, and IGT, thanks to 635 registered grape varieties, double the number of France.
In 2024, wine consumption in Italy is expected to stabilize with a per capita consumption of 26.3 liters and a total of approximately 10.3 million liters. According to (Osservatorio Uiv-Ismea, July 2024), sales in the Organized Large Distribution sector dropped by 2.5% in volume in the first half of 2024, with a 3.4% contraction for still and sparkling wines, especially reds, while sparkling wines grew by 4.2%. In July 2024, however, revenue recorded a 14% increase.
As for product categories, still wines remained stable (-1%), while sparkling wines and champagnes saw a decline. Spirits, on the other hand, experienced significant growth, with a 40% increase in value, including gin (+60%), bitters (+84%), and liqueurs (+73%), while grappa saw a negative trend with a -9% drop. In 2023, wine sales fell by 4.5% across all channels, with a significant impact on mid-range wines, whose sales dropped by 10.1%. In contrast, the very high/premium range grew by 12.7%, capturing an 18.6% market share. Sustainable wines also saw an increase: organic wines reached a 5.4% market share (+1.4%), vegan wines 2.7% (+9.6%), and natural wines 1% (+1.8%). The leading regions in DOP wine production are Piedmont (94.6%) and Tuscany (39.3%). The outlook for 2024 is optimistic for Emilia-Romagna (+4.6%), Puglia (+4.3%), and Piedmont (+4.2%).
In the first quarter of 2024, Italian wine exports grew by 7%, reaching €2.53 billion (ISTAT). Future forecasts remain optimistic: exports are expected to continue growing at an average rate of 2.9% annually until 2026, exceeding €8.5 billion (SACE, 2024).
All major wine categories performed well in early 2024. Sparkling wines increased by 7.3% in value and 10.7% in volume, bottled still wines grew by 2.7% in value and 3.5% in volume, while sparkling wines saw even greater growth: +12.2% in value and +16.8% in volume. However, average prices are falling in many categories, signaling some resistance in the market to paying higher prices.
The foreign market is crucial for Italian wine, with around 40% of production destined for export (SACE, 2024). Italy remains the world’s top exporter by volume (21.4 million hectoliters in 2023) and second by value (€7.7 billion), surpassed only by France. Italian wine exports generated approximately €8 billion in 2023, with an 80% increase from 2012 to 2022 (ICE, 2023). The main export markets are the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada, with China emerging as a growing market. Surprisingly, Russia also showed strong results, with Italian wine imports increasing by 125.7%, from €45.5 million to €102.8 million in one year.
Consumers are most interested in organic and sustainable wines, confirming the popularity of DOC and DOCG wines, exploring new emerging markets, and increasing online sales. The driving force in the sector is Prosecco DOP, which grew by 11.2% to a value of €519 million, about one-fifth of global imports of Italian wine.
Among emerging trends, wine is becoming an investment asset, especially “fine wines,” and natural wines are gaining popularity, with over 30% of Italian consumers interested in organic wines. There is also growing attention to sustainable packaging and automation in storage and warehousing processes. It is worth noting that blockchain, with its immutability, transparency, and cryptographic security, is emerging in the wine sector as a key tool for improving traceability and authenticity of information.
Several factors influence wine consumption in Italy, including economic instability, cultural changes, competition from other beverages, and the impact of marketing, says Mancini. Despite these variables, according to ISTAT data, in 2023, the number of wine consumers in Italy remained stable at 29.4 million, equivalent to 55% of the population. The total wine consumed in Italy in 2023 is estimated at 23 million hectoliters.
In Italy, the consumption of alcoholic beverages has become more widespread but less frequent, with only 29% of Italians drinking daily, while the remaining 71% do so sporadically. Specifically, 55.1% of the population over 11 years old consumes wine, a slight increase from 54.9% the previous year, with a penetration of 45% among women and 65% among men.
Regionally, Emilia-Romagna has the highest percentage of consumers (61.3%), followed by Valle d’Aosta (60.5%), Tuscany (60.4%), and Veneto (59.8%). Trento province recorded the highest growth in consumers (+11%), while Basilicata saw the largest decline (-9%).
As far as age groups are concerned, the highest penetration of wine consumption in 2023 was between the ages of 35 and 44, a change from previous years when the peak was around the age of 60. However, in this age group, habitual consumption is lower than in the 60s. In addition, consumption among young people is growing: 50% of 20-24 year olds will drink wine in 2023, up from 42% ten years earlier. Consumption among 25-34 year olds has risen from 55.5% in 2007 to 62.2% in 2023, an increase of 7% in 15 years.
The Italian wine sector in 2024 is in a transition phase, characterised by economic and environmental challenges, but also by opportunities for those who know how to innovate and adapt to new trends. The adoption of sustainable practices, technological innovation and attention to consumer needs will be decisive for the future success of Italian wineries in an increasingly competitive global market, Mancini concludes.