Italy’s agribusiness sector is the one that brings the most value added to GDP, a performance worth 4.5 times that of automotive, and is confirmed as a strategic asset for the country’s competitiveness. It ranks 15th in productivity, but Italy is among the top 5 countries in the EU for value generated by the agricultural robotics market: revenues of €1,600 for every million generated by agriculture, double the European value. However, the sector must continue to evolve and adapt to new consumer trends: short supply chain, attention to labels, and natural foods, purchased mainly at Coop (30 percent), Esselunga (25 percent) and Lidl (20 percent) chain supermarkets, according to Forbes and Gambero Rosso data reworked by Rome Business School (2024).
These among the analyses in the report “Food Sector in Italy. Consumption trends and business models” edited by Valerio Mancini, director of the Rome Business School’s Center for Disclosure Research. “We are witnessing an evolution in the food sector. Greater attention in the selection of ingredients, possibly from local farms and agricultural facilities, control of the health factors of the dishes offered within their restaurants and more vegetable choices on the shelves of stores and large supermarkets, are just some of the determinants of what will be the food trends to watch in 2024.”
Consumers are becoming more responsible, but also more demanding, more attention is being paid to environmental sustainability, thus to natural, km 0 and less processed foods, to take care of their health and the environment. In fact, according to the Food Trends & Innovation Report by research institute Censuswide as early as 2022, 46 percent of people in Europe confirmed that they were interested in knowing where their food comes from, preferring to buy local, and were willing to spend more for better quality ingredients. In the case of Italy, 45% of consumers discard products with preservatives, 66% prefer organic products (Cortilia, 2023).
There is growing interest in cultured meat (FAO estimates it will have a global market of $2.1 billion by 2033 and $13.7 billion by 2043) and plant-based foods, with a market of $162 billion by 2030, accounting for 7.7 percent of the global protein market (Bloomberg); and cultural contamination. In the latter case, it is also chefs who are incorporating spices, leaves and elements that not only enrich flavors but introduce new flavor profiles and nutritional benefits, providing a richer and more diverse dining experience.
According to analysis by the New York Times (Dec. 2023), the boldest and most innovation-driven restaurants will make use of artificial intelligence to learn about customers’ preferences and personalize their experience: AI can analyze data about customers’ choices, suggesting dishes that best suit their tastes and dietary needs.
“The use of AI in the kitchen will also be able to optimize restaurant operations, from inventory management to demand forecasting, improving efficiency and reducing waste. In addition, technologies such as 3D food printing and food robots are beginning to make their way into restaurants, promising to further transform the way we prepare and consume food,” says Valerio Mancini.
So embracing technology undoubtedly brings great benefits, but public investment in Italy for agricultural R&D comes to only €5.2 per capita, the 17th highest in the Union (average of €7.6 per person). In fact, Italy ranks last among the top four EU economies – Germany, France and Spain. Looking at the agricultural robotics market, on the other hand, it is among the top 5 in the EU in terms of value generated, with revenues of €1,600 for every million generated by agriculture, double the European value.
Of the Italian agribusiness supply chain, agriculture and the food and beverage industry together account for nearly 39 percent of its entire value. More in detail, the industrial stage explains over 27 percent of the total and agriculture another 11 percent. Completing the picture are wholesale and retail trade, which together account for as much as 53 percent of the total. Finally, catering reaches a turnover of nearly 45 billion, equivalent to 8 percent of the total system (CREA Policies and Bioeconomy data, September 2023).
The Italian food industry ranks third among EU countries, after Germany and France, but ahead of Spain (The European House – Ambrosetti, June 2024). The supply chain is worth nearly 67 billion euros, resulting in an added value to GDP of 3.8 percent against a European average of 4.1 percent. That said, when considered extensively with its upstream and downstream supply chains, 335 billion euros of added value is generated, enabling the generation of 19% of national GDP.
Italian agribusiness maintains the lead in several industries, according to TEHA (June 2024). Italy dominates the pasta industry with 73 percent of EU turnover and plays an important role in the wine industry with 28 percent, behind France (36 percent) and ahead of Spain (20 percent). In baked goods and cookies, Italy generates 21 percent of EU turnover, surpassing Germany (16 percent), Spain (13 percent) and France (12 percent). However, Germany leads in the confectionery segment with 27 percent versus Italy’s 16 percent. In the coffee, tea and herbal tea segment, France leads with 29 percent, followed by Italy (17 percent) and Germany (14 percent).
In terms of productivity levels, on the other hand, Italy ranks 15th in Europe with an average of 45 thousand euros per employee, lower than the EU-27 average of 52 thousand (-13%). “The correlation between firm size and productivity is positive and growing,” says Valerio Mancini. In fact, if the Italian supply chain wanted to reach the average productivity of the top-10 most productive countries in the EU (from 45 thousand euros per employee to 80 thousand euros per employee), it would have to more than triple the average size of companies in the sector (from an average of 3 million euros per company to 10.1 million).
Food delivery is a sector that moves a 1.8 billion euro market worldwide and a service that reaches 71% of the Italian population, and it continues to grow: food e-commerce between 2010 and today has increased by an average of 39% per year (TEHA, 2023). In Italy the main players are Just Eat (51% of the population), Glovo (41%) and Deliveroo (39%), used monthly by 21% of users, mostly people between 18 and 34 years old, according to YouGov 2024 data.
Italians mostly order pizza: 7 out of 10 users say they order pizza via delivery. Second on the list is fast food with 29% (fried chicken, carbonated drinks) and then hamburgers (28%). Food delivery services and apps are highly valued by Italians mainly because of the convenience of the service (61%), the ability to choose the time of delivery (40%) and to pay online (35%), as well as the speed of delivery (29%) and the ability to track the order (27%). However, major weaknesses include food getting cold on the way (36%), delivery delays (24%), high cost of delivery service (19%), errors in delivered products (16%), environmental impact of disposable packaging (15%), and difficulty in contacting the courier (13%).
Not only are “ready meals” delivered, but in recent years there has also been an increase in home meal kits. These are boxes containing ingredients that have already been dosed and which, when properly combined, make it possible to make a given recipe. According to an analysis by Statista, the Meal Kit Delivery market in Italy is expected to reach a turnover of 6.21 million euros in 2024 and will reach more than 23 thousand users in the next four years.
For those, however, who opt for a restaurant, catering remains an Italian excellence and a continuously growing sector, recorded an increase of +22% in 2023 (Deloitte). “The food hotel experience and the search for small restaurants offering menus based on local, almost niche, and generally directly produced products, together with an increasing attention to the visual aspect of the dishes are confirmed as the trends of 2024,” Mancini concludes.