In the first four months of 2025, electricity prices in Italy reached €136.2/MWh, the highest among the major EU countries, far exceeding Germany (€112.5/MWh), France (€94.5/MWh), and Spain (€80.9/MWh). In fact, the gap between Italian and Spanish electricity prices stands at +68%, to Italy’s detriment. Wholesale electricity prices inherently depend on the marginal energy source used for generation, which in Italy is often natural gas.
Between 2021 and 2023, the use of natural gas in Italy’s primary energy mix significantly dropped (-5.1 percentage points), partially offset by a modest increase in renewable coverage (+0.9 percentage points), which reached 20.5% of the energy mix (the best among major European powers), and an increase in oil usage of 3.6 percentage points, signaling an incomplete transition.
These elements suggest that emission reduction goals cannot rely solely on increasing clean energy share. A necessary part of the transition also involves a real reduction in overall energy consumption at constant GDP levels. That’s the true challenge of the energy transition: not only replacing sources, but also rethinking the scale of consumption.
Reducing demand, through efficiency measures, reorganization of production processes, and changes in individual behavior, is the combined way to structurally reduce climate-altering emissions. Only in this way will it be possible to reduce fossil fuel dependence and reach climate neutrality goals by 2050, says Massimiliano Parco, one of the report’s authors.
These are some of the findings from the report “Energy and Transition in Italy and Europe” by the Rome Business School, authored by Francesco Baldi (Lecturer in the International Master in Finance), Massimiliano Parco (Economist, Centro Europa Ricerche), and Valerio Mancini (Director of the Divulgative Research Center).
According to Eurostat, in 2023 natural gas still accounted for 35.4% of Italy’s energy mix, nearly three times higher than France (13.1%) and also above Germany (25%) and Spain (21.7%). Oil made up 36.7%, marking a 3.6 percentage point increase since 2021. Renewables only rose by +0.9 percentage points, the smallest increase among the countries analyzed. Natural gas remains Italy’s second most consumed energy source (35.4%).
In 2023, over 65% of total EU-27 emissions were generated by five member states: Germany, Italy, France, Poland, and Spain. From 2025 onwards, all have progressively reduced their emission levels per unit of GDP. France stands out with the lowest pollution levels relative to GDP (0.14 in 2024). Close behind are Germany (0.18), Italy (0.19), and Spain (0.20).
From 2005 to 2023, Italy reduced greenhouse gas emissions by over 35%, but the pace is slowing. Estimates from the Centro Europa Ricerche (CER) indicate a decline of -3% in 2024, compared to -6.4% the previous year. In 2023, the energy, manufacturing, and construction sectors accounted for 34.7% of Italy’s emissions, compared to 46.5% in coal-heavy Germany and 19.9% in nuclear-powered France. Transportation added another 28.2%, while residential uses (heating and buildings) contributed 16–18%. Agriculture accounted for 8% of national emissions, compared to 16.8% in France. These structural differences highlight the need for tailored mitigation strategies for each country’s key sectors.
In 2023, Italy imported 74.8% of the energy it consumed, the highest rate among major European countries (Eurostat). Spain was at 68%, Germany at 66%, and France at around 45%. Despite a -25% drop in energy consumption since 2005, energy self-sufficiency remains distant.
This gap means that three-quarters of Italy’s national energy needs rely on foreign suppliers, with direct implications for security, costs, and supply continuity,” says Francesco Baldi.
With renewable energy production still insufficient—just 10 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2023, equal to 44% of electricity generation, Italy has failed to offset the reduction in gas imports with a significant increase in clean sources. In fact, oil’s share in the national mix has grown (+3.6 percentage points), reinforcing dependence on foreign and polluting sources (Eurostat). This also means greater exposure to geopolitical and speculative fluctuations, as seen with the price spikes following the invasion of Ukraine.
Historical comparisons highlight Italy’s lag in self-sufficiency: from 2005 to 2023, Germany increased renewable production by +8.4% per year on average, Spain by +7%, France by +5.3%, and Italy by only +5%. However, according to Francesco Baldi,
In all countries, low-emission sources are still struggling to become dominant, and the overall share of energy produced from fossil fuels remains too high to ensure a sustained and lasting reduction in emissions.
Europe’s energy transition revolves around six key technologies: solar PV, wind power, batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electrolyzers. Combined, these represent over $700 billion in annual global investments. Italy is participating in this race, but with smaller numbers than its European partners, held back by regulatory barriers, infrastructure delays, and a lack of institutional coordination.
On green hydrogen, Italy targets 5 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030, compared to 10 GW in Germany, 6.5 GW in France, and nearly 27 GW in Spain, the European leader in project capacity.
In electric mobility, the gap is also clear: in 2023, electric vehicles accounted for less than 10% of new registrations in Italy, compared to over 15% in both Germany and France. Heat pumps, essential for decarbonizing heating, are expected to expand significantly: the EU aims for 30 million installations by 2030. Italy is contributing through projects funded by the PNRR: €1 billion for green supply chains and €740 million for charging infrastructure, but the scale of interventions remains limited compared to demand.
It’s also important to look at the global context, which is highly competitive: while Italy is already very dependent on foreign energy sources, it’s not alone in relying on other countries for renewable technologies and materials. China controls 85–98% of global production of components for batteries, solar, heat pumps, and electrolyzers. This imbalance led Brussels to adopt the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act, setting a goal of 40% domestic clean tech production capacity by 2030.
In summary, Italy is in a structurally fragile position but also holds the potential for revival. Bridging the gap with other European countries will require a sharp acceleration from the current growth pace and a long-term vision.
The energy transition is no longer optional, it’s a competitive necessity,” concludes Valerio Mancini. “What’s needed is an integrated industrial strategy, targeted investments, and more effective governance. The alternative is falling behind, paying the highest economic and environmental price in Europe.